Daria Kasatkina Installed as Favorite for Dubai Opener Against Laura Siegemund
The WTA Dubai draw sets up a compelling opening-round clash on Monday, Feb. 16, when Daria Kasatkina meets Laura Siegemund. Kasatkina begins the week as the market favorite, bringing recent momentum from a solid Doha showing; Siegemund arrives as the veteran underdog seeking a breakthrough in a season that has yet to ignite.
Kasatkina's recent form and confidence boost
Kasutkina arrives in Dubai on the back of a run to the round of 16 in Doha, where she produced a notable upset of Elise Mertens and pushed a top-ranked opponent deep in a competitive match. That sequence has been framed as evidence of an upward swing in her early-season form. Tournament simulations and betting markets reflect that momentum: Kasatkina is listed as the favorite at -250, which translates to an implied winning probability of roughly 71. 4% on the moneyline.
Technically a former top-10 player, Kasatkina still relies on her variety, heavy topspin and court craft to dictate points. Those tools become particularly useful on Dubai’s hard courts, where she can open angles and exploit openings from the baseline. Her recent results suggest a player more comfortable dictating tempo and taking initiative in rallies—qualities that will be decisive against a crafty veteran like Siegemund.
Siegemund’s challenge: experience versus recent rust
Laura Siegemund, now in the latter stages of her career, is the underdog on paper but not without the weapons to create trouble. The German is experienced on big stages and has a varied game that can disrupt rhythm, using slices, net approaches and lefty angles to change the pace. However, Siegemund’s 2026 campaign has struggled to date—she has managed just one win across four outings, including qualifying—so questions remain about her match sharpness coming into Dubai.
Their head-to-head history favors Kasatkina, who holds a 3-1 lead, but those meetings date back several years, with the last match between them in 2018. That gap in recent direct encounters means past results offer only a partial guide; current form and the ability to execute under pressure will likely determine the outcome on Monday.
Odds, models and what bettors should watch
Bookmakers currently have Kasatkina at -250 and Siegemund at +190. Beyond the raw moneyline, predictive models offer similar endorsements for Kasatkina. One simulation-driven model projects Kasatkina with roughly a 65% chance to win and about a 63% probability of taking the first set; that same model suggests over 20. 5 total games as a favored market option. The moneyline’s implied probability is nearer 71. 4%, highlighting slight variation between market-implied and modelled forecasts.
Key factors bettors and neutral fans should monitor: Kasatkina’s ability to maintain the aggression that served her in Doha; Siegemund’s return efficiency and capacity to shorten points; and the early-match rhythm—if Siegemund arrives sharp she can force tighter, lower-scoring sets where margins shrink. The match is scheduled to begin at 4: 00 AM ET on Monday, Feb. 16, and promises to test whether recent momentum or veteran guile will prevail in the opening round.
At face value, Kasatkina starts as the strong favorite. Still, Siegemund’s unconventional style and experience mean an upset is by no means out of reach if the German can raise her level and put pressure on Kasatkina’s first-strike tennis.
