IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand growth forecast for 2026. In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA now expects a rise of 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the current year. This is a decrease from the previous estimate of 930,000 bpd.
Key Factors in Demand Growth
All expected growth this year will be driven by developing economies, particularly China. The IEA highlighted that petrochemical feedstock products will account for over half of this year’s demand increases. In contrast, transport fuels dominated growth in 2025.
Comparison with OPEC’s Forecast
The IEA’s predictions significantly differ from those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC projects a demand growth of 1.4 million bpd for this year and anticipates a robust growth of 1.3 million bpd for 2027.
- IEA’s 2026 Forecast: Oil market projected to be in surplus.
- Supply Increase: Expected rise of 2.4 million bpd, reaching 108.6 million bpd.
- Production Breakdown: Growth will be approximately equal between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers.
Recent Supply Challenges
Last month, the IEA adjusted its oil supply forecast for 2026 downwards. Originally estimated to rise by 2.5 million bpd, the agency reduced the figure due to weather-related disruptions in the United States and other countries.
Impact of Winter Weather
In January, global oil supply fell by 1.2 million bpd to 106.6 million bpd. This decline was largely attributed to severe winter weather affecting North American operations. Additionally, outages and export constraints impacted supplies from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela. However, a recovery in output is anticipated in the coming months.
Regional Supply Issues
Ongoing disruptions at Kazakhstan’s main export terminal since November were exacerbated by a recent power outage at the Tengiz oilfield. These issues have temporarily created tighter conditions in Atlantic Basin light crude markets.
As the oil market continues to evolve, the IEA’s insights provide critical guidance for industry stakeholders. For further developments and analyses, readers can turn to Filmogaz.com.
