IU Basketball’s NCAA Tournament Prospects: Countdown to Selection Sunday
With Selection Sunday approaching in less than five weeks, Indiana University’s basketball team is closely monitored for its chances in the NCAA Tournament. After a recent split week in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers find themselves firmly positioned within the tournament bubble. However, they must secure additional victories, including a critical matchup against Oregon.
Use of NET Rankings
The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings are essential for assessing teams’ strength. The NET has been the primary sorting tool for Division I men’s basketball since replacing the RPI before the 2018-19 season. Two key components underpin the NET system:
- Team Value Index (TVI): This rewards teams for defeating quality opponents, particularly on the road.
- Adjusted Net Efficiency Rating: This is a team’s net efficiency, tweaked for opponent strength and game location (home, away, or neutral).
The NET rankings categorize wins and losses using a quadrant system based on location and opponents’ NET rankings:
| Quadrant | Home | Neutral | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quadrant 1 | 1-30 | 1-50 | 1-75 |
| Quadrant 2 | 31-75 | 51-100 | 76-135 |
| Quadrant 3 | 76-160 | 101-200 | 135-240 |
| Quadrant 4 | 161-353 | 201-353 | 241-353 |
Current Performance Metrics
As of February 9, Indiana’s performance by quadrant is as follows:
- Quadrant 1: 2 wins, 7 losses
- Quadrant 2: 2 wins, 1 loss
- Quadrant 3: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Quadrant 4: 7 wins, 0 losses
Indiana’s performance against top-ranked teams (termed “Quad 1A”) is also considered. Currently, they are 2-5 in these high-stakes matchups.
NET Ranking and Projections
Currently, Indiana is ranked No. 33 in the NET rankings, having dropped from No. 11 since December. For context, the No. 33 team on last year’s Selection Sunday, Georgia, received a No. 9 seed.
According to Bracket Matrix, Indiana is featured in 106 out of 110 projections with an average seed of approximately 10.02. However, this data hasn’t factored in their recent game against Wisconsin, suggesting a potential improvement in their standings.
Additional Ranking Insights
The NCAA Selection Committee employs seven measurement tools beyond the NET. Indiana’s rankings in these tools are as follows:
- NET: 33 (-3)
- Torvik: 25 (-2; 92.7% chance to make the field)
- Wins Above Bubble: 40 (-6)
- KenPom: 35 (-2)
- Basketball Power Index: 28 (-3)
- KPI: 47 (+2)
- Strength of Record: 41 (-4)
Looking Ahead: Remaining Schedule
Indiana has several opportunities to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume with the following upcoming games:
- vs. Oregon (Quadrant 3)
- at Illinois (Quadrant 1)
- at Purdue (Quadrant 1)
- vs. Northwestern (Quadrant 3)
- vs. Michigan State (Quadrant 1)
- vs. Minnesota (Quadrant 3)
- at Ohio State (Quadrant 1)
With several challenging matchups on the horizon, the Indiana Hoosiers are in a critical period. Their performance in the coming weeks will be crucial for their NCAA Tournament bid and selection seeding.
