Crockett and Paxton Dominate Their U.S. Senate Primary Bids

Jordi Bashirian

Published: February 10, 2026 11:12 AM ET

Crockett and Paxton Dominate Their U.S. Senate Primary Bids

Recent polling reveals that Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett are leading their respective Senate primary bids. The polling data was released on a Monday, just days before early voting begins on February 17.

Crockett and Paxton Lead in Senate Primaries

A survey conducted among 550 likely Republican primary voters showed Paxton gaining 38% support. This gives him a 7-point lead over incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn, who secured 31% of the vote. U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt trailed significantly with 17%.

Paxton’s Momentum

Paxton’s lead represents a shift from previous polling, which had a tighter race.
Among key demographic groups, Paxton outperformed Cornyn, with the exception of Latino voters, where Cornyn led by 7 percentage points.
If the primary progresses to a runoff, Paxton retains a strong advantage.

On the Democratic side, a similar poll indicates that Crockett holds 47% support compared to 39% for state Representative James Talarico. This marks a significant change, as previous polls showed the candidates in a near tie.

Crockett’s Support Among Voters

Crockett leads Talarico in most demographic categories, except among white voters and those with advanced degrees.
Specifically, 46% of likely Latino primary voters support Crockett, while 37% favor Talarico.
However, Talarico recently received an endorsement from the state’s largest Hispanic Democratic organization.

Notably, 92% of respondents expressed familiarity with Crockett, while 85% were aware of Talarico. Both sets of candidates still have approximately 12% of their voters undecided.

General Election Outlook

The poll also measured the views of 1,502 likely general election voters regarding President Donald Trump’s performance. Approval ratings were nearly even, with 49% approving and 50% disapproving. However, dissatisfaction was particularly noted in areas like foreign policy and economic decisions, while immigration and border security received a 51% approval rate.

Overall, the data indicates a dynamic landscape in the Texas Senate primaries, with both Paxton and Crockett establishing clear leads ahead of the early voting period.