Toronto, Vancouver Mortgage Warnings: Most Homeowners Avoid Renewal Struggles, Says CMHC

The Canadian housing market faces significant challenges as mortgage renewals rise, particularly in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver. Recent data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reveals a growing number of homeowners missing mortgage payments, though the situation remains relatively stable compared to historical norms.

Current Mortgage Trends in Canada

According to Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, CMHC’s deputy chief economist, the mortgage arrears rate is anticipated to heighten in 2026, especially in pricier markets like Toronto and Vancouver. The national delinquency rate increased by seven basis points from 2023 to 2025, now sitting at 0.22 percent. While this is a substantial rise, it falls short of earlier predictions of a broader wave of delinquencies.

Mortgage Renewals and Economic Impact

Over the past year, approximately 1.5 million Canadian households have renewed their mortgages, transitioning from historically low pandemic rates. An additional million renewals are predicted for 2026. Amidst fears of a “ticking time bomb” scenario due to soaring interest rates, many homeowners have extended their amortization periods to manage payments effectively.

• Mortgage amortizations have increased by 16 months compared to prepandemic levels.
• Strong wage growth in 2024 may mitigate the effects of higher payments for some households.

Regional Disparities in Mortgage Arrears

Toronto and Vancouver have reported the highest rates of mortgage arrears. In Toronto, arrears surged from 0.06 percent in 2022 to 0.26 percent in the third quarter of 2025. The increase is attributed to high housing costs, a struggling job market, and difficulties within the condominium sector.

Future Projections of Delinquencies

By the end of 2026, Toronto’s mortgage arrears are expected to reach 0.34 percent. Other cities, such as Ottawa, Montreal, and Winnipeg, are predicted to see a peak in delinquencies by mid-2026, followed by a decline. Despite the current rise in mortgage arrears, they remain below historical averages, thanks in part to pandemic-era support from financial institutions.

• TD economist Maria Solovieva holds a more optimistic view, suggesting that the peak renewal period is largely behind us.
• Shorter-term mortgages may experience less severe effects from interest rate changes.

Risks Ahead

Despite the positive outlook, concerns about job stability linger, with potential adverse effects from Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S. Unemployment could exacerbate the situation, particularly in regions susceptible to tariff impacts. Bourassa-Ochoa noted rising non-mortgage delinquencies as an early warning sign for mortgage arrears.

As homeowners navigate a turbulent economic landscape, the focus remains on managing renewals effectively in the face of rising interest rates. Strategic planning and an understanding of broader economic indicators will be key for Canadians in maintaining mortgage stability.