Why Have Recent Rainy Days Increased?
Recent weeks have brought an unusual amount of rain across various regions, particularly affecting the UK. Southwest England, eastern Scotland, and eastern Northern Ireland have experienced particularly wet January conditions, with reports of heavy rainfall and travel disruptions. Additionally, snowfall in the Scottish hills has contributed to the winter weather challenges. This pattern of persistent wet weather has also extended to parts of western France and the Iberian Peninsula.
Why Have Recent Rainy Days Increased?
The primary factor behind the increase in rainy days lies in the behavior of the jet stream. This fast-moving river of air high in the atmosphere plays a crucial role in shaping weather patterns. Currently, it has been unusually strong and has shifted further south than normal for this time of year. This position allows low-pressure systems to funnel directly towards the UK, leading to more frequent and intense rain.
The Role of the Jet Stream
The jet stream’s behavior has been influenced by cold air surges from North America, which strengthen it. This contrast between warm and cold air enhances the jet stream’s energy, allowing it to act as a conveyor belt for developing low-pressure systems. Unfortunately, a high-pressure area over northern Europe has led to a “blocked” weather pattern. This block hampers shifts in the jet stream and limits the onset of drier weather.
Persistent Wet Conditions
This existing weather setup has proven remarkably persistent. High pressure remains anchored over Scandinavia while low-pressure systems approach from the southwest. Consequently, the UK, particularly its western and southwestern regions, continues to experience significant rainfall.
- January was extremely wet, particularly in southwest England and parts of Scotland.
- Storm Goretti and other intense wind storms have caused additional disruptions.
- Ground saturation and swollen rivers have emerged as prominent concerns.
Future Weather Projections
Looking ahead, the unsettled weather is expected to continue in the short term, especially with rain anticipated for southwestern UK and eastern Scotland. Some areas may face further issues related to saturated land. However, as February progresses, there are hints that high pressure could shift towards Greenland. This potential change might lessen rainfall in northern regions, offering drier conditions temporarily.
Long-Term Changes on the Horizon
As February advances, models suggest a return of the jet stream to its previous, slightly southern trajectory. This shift is likely to reintroduce the cycle of low-pressure systems and additional wind and rain events. While there may be intermittent periods of quieter weather, indications point towards the quick resurgence of wet conditions.
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