2026 Australian Open: Rybakina vs. Mertens Match Preview, Odds & Prediction
The upcoming match at the 2026 Australian Open features No. 5 seed Elena Rybakina facing No. 21 seed Elise Mertens in the Round of 16. Scheduled for January 25, this clash promises excitement as Rybakina enters with significant odds in her favor.
Match Overview
- Tournament: Australian Open
- Round: Round of 16
- Date: January 25, 2026
- TV Channel: ESPN+
- Court Surface: Hard
Current Odds
Elena Rybakina is heavily favored in this matchup with betting odds set at:
- Rybakina: -549
- Mertens: +375
In terms of tournament winning odds, Rybakina stands at +120 while Mertens holds +800.
Player Performance
Elena Rybakina has demonstrated strong performance on hard courts over the past year, boasting a record of 36 wins and 12 losses. Notable achievements include:
- Winning two tournaments on hard courts.
- A service game success rate of 80.9%.
- Converting 44.3% of break points (171 out of 386).
In her last appearance at the Brisbane International, Rybakina reached the quarterfinals before falling to Karolina Muchova with scores of 2-6, 6-2, 4-6.
Conversely, Elise Mertens enters the match with a record of 20 victories against 12 losses on hard courts, highlighting one tournament win. Key statistics for Mertens include:
- Service games won at 74.7% (236 out of 316).
- Return game success at 38.7% (126 out of 326).
- Break point conversion rate of 44.3% (121 out of 273).
In her last competition at the Kinoshita Group Japan Open, she lost in the Round of 16 to Tereza Valentova, with a score of 4-6, 1-6.
Match Prediction
Based on analysts’ evaluations and betting odds, Rybakina has an 84.6% implied probability of winning against Mertens. This indicator suggests a significant advantage for Rybakina as they prepare to face off in this critical matchup of the 2026 Australian Open.
