U.S. Murder Rate Drops Over 20%, Achieving Record Decline, Study Reveals

A recent study by the Council on Criminal Justice revealed a significant drop in the U.S. murder rate. It noted a decline of over 20% in 2025, compared to the previous year. This milestone represents the largest one-year decrease on record, potentially leading to the lowest murder rate since 1900.

Key Findings of the Study

The study analyzed crime data from 40 large U.S. cities, focusing on 13 different crime types, including:

• Murder
• Carjacking
• Theft
• Drug offenses

Notably, homicides fell by 21% from 2024. Additionally, carjackings plummeted by 61%, and shoplifting also showed a decrease of 10% during the same timeframe. Overall, violent crime rates have returned to levels observed in 2019, except for drug offenses, which saw an increase.

Reasons Behind the Decline

While various factors contributed to the drop in homicides, pinpointing the exact causes proved challenging. Ernesto Lopez, the report’s lead author, highlighted that homicide rates have been steadily declining since the late 2000s, with a brief spike in 2020. He suggested that the current rates might indicate a longer-term downward trend interrupted by periods of elevated violence.

Statistics by City

Data from the study indicated a 25% reduction in homicides from 2019, with declines noted in 27 out of 35 cities surveyed. Some key statistics include:

• Richmond, Virginia – 59% drop
• Los Angeles – 39% drop
• New York City – 10% drop

However, some cities experienced stable rates or reductions of less than 5%. In Atlanta, police reported fewer than 100 homicides in 2025, marking a significant milestone since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The city witnessed a 14% decrease in murders compared to the previous year.

Community Impact and Solutions

Atlanta Police Chief Darren Schierbaum attributed many homicides to “escalating disputes” and emphasized the need for community conflict resolution. Experts also weighed in, suggesting that the stabilization of routines, access to COVID-19 relief funds, and targeted prevention initiatives played crucial roles in the decline. Thaddeus Johnson, an assistant professor of criminal justice, noted the importance of focusing support on neighborhoods experiencing high rates of violence.

As the nation reflects on these developments, questions remain about how to ensure continued safety and stability across various communities. Understanding individual neighborhood dynamics will be essential for sustained progress.