Patriots vs Broncos: Analyzing Team Matchup and Key Dynamics

As the AFC playoff race intensifies, the matchup between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos promises to be intriguing, especially with key player changes and defensive strategies at play.

Quarterback Dynamics: Stidham vs. Nix

This season, 29-year-old Jarrett Stidham has had minimal playing time, taking just four snaps without attempting a pass. In contrast, Denver’s backup quarterback, Drake Nix, who was drafted nine picks after Drake Maye in 2024, has proven his versatility but will miss this game. Nix is noted for his ability as both a deep passer and runner.

Stidham’s last game start was in Week 18 of the 2023 season, where he completed 20 of 34 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, despite suffering five sacks. Head coach Sean Payton believes Stidham is prepared for this significant challenge.

Historical Context

Stidham is set to become just the ninth quarterback since 1950 to make his first start of the season in the postseason. Historically, such quarterbacks have struggled, with only one leading their team to victory—Frank Reich in January 1993, during the famous 32-point comeback against Houston.

Defensive Strengths

The Broncos’ defense should not be overlooked. They have allowed an average of 287.7 yards per game this season, ranking fifth in the NFL. They’ve also limited opponents to only 18.9 points per game, placing them fourth overall.

• Their red zone defense has been exceptional, allowing touchdowns just 42.6% of the time.
• Denver has allowed an average of 96.2 rushing yards per game and has a run-stop win rate of 32%, ranking fourth in the league.
• The Broncos led the league with 68 sacks and have a pressure rate of 40.7%.

Outside linebacker Nik Bonitto has been a key contributor to this success.

Pass Defense Analysis

Against the pass, Denver has also excelled, allowing quarterbacks to complete only 57.8% of their passes. This rate drops to 46% under pressure. Star cornerback Patrick Surtain, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, has also been hard to beat, allowing only a 52.5% catch rate on targets against him.

Turnover and Penalty Considerations

Despite a strong defense, the Broncos struggled with takeaways during the regular season, finishing with just 14, which placed them 26th in the league. In their recent game, however, they generated five takeaways.

• Denver’s most frequent penalties are offensive holding, defensive pass interference, and false start.
• Cornerback Riley Moss has been a primary offender in defensive pass interference calls.

Injury Updates

Outside of Nix, the Broncos’ roster is relatively healthy, with linebacker Dre Greenlaw back in action. The statuses of wide receivers Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant are also worth monitoring.

The Patriots are nearing full strength as well. They welcomed back nose tackle Khyiris Tonga and potentially have wide receiver Mack Hollins returning from injured reserve this week.

This upcoming showdown between the Patriots and Broncos will hinge on the performance of Stidham and the efficacy of Denver’s formidable defense. As always, turnovers and penalties could play a decisive role in the outcome of this matchup.