NFL Mock Draft 2026 (Jan. 14): Raiders circling a QB at No. 1 as Dante Moore’s return scrambles boards

The first wave of post–regular season mock drafts hardened this week—and then the quarterback deck got reshuffled. Multiple fresh projections now lean quarterback for Las Vegas at No. 1, with Indiana’s Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza emerging as the cleanest top-pick profile. Meanwhile, Dante Moore’s decision to return to Oregon has sent ripple effects through the top 10, forcing QB-needy teams to reassess and pushing other passers into the spotlight.

NFL mock draft top-line takeaways today

• QB at No. 1 is back on trend: With Las Vegas locked at the top, the simplest path is drafting a franchise quarterback rather than trading down. Mendoza’s size, accuracy, and poise under pressure fit the “walk-in starter” template.

• Dante Moore off the board (for now): Moore staying in school removes a headline QB from this class. Mock boards updated in the past 24 hours reflect immediate pivots by teams slotted in the top five.

• Jets’ dilemma at No. 2: Without Moore, several projections shift New York toward premium defense or offensive tackle. A QB flier remains possible—but not forced.

• First-round QB picture widens: Ty Simpson has re-entered round-one conversations in several mocks, while a handful of developmental options are moving up boards on traits.

Stock watch: prospects trending up in mock drafts

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana — The most stable QB1 in today’s mocks. Traits scouts gravitate to: controlled feet, layered touch, and turnover avoidance in full-field reads.

Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama — Recent mocks boost Simpson into the late first on the back of decision-making gains and off-script creation. He’s becoming a plausible “sit-and-develop” option for veteran-led teams.

Spencer Fano, OT, Utah — Tackle-needy clubs in the top half keep gravitating to Fano’s balance and hand timing. In multiple updated scenarios he’s the second non-QB off the board.

Denzel Boston, WR, Washington — Big-play profile with acceleration through the catch point; he’s appearing in the teens as teams chase vertical separation.

Arvell Reese, LB/EDGE, Ohio State — Versatility is carrying him into top-12 talk; modern defenses like his stack/scrape range and blitz value.

KC Concepcion, WR, NC State — A YAC-forward slot option who’s moving into the late-first mix for teams craving motion touches and matchup stress.

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame — Running backs rarely push high, but Love’s three-down utility and pass-game polish keep him on the fringe of round one in certain builds.

How Moore’s return reshapes the top of the board

Moore exiting the 2026 pool does three big things:

1. Removes a “trade-up magnet” that would have tempted QB-hungry teams to climb.

2. Boosts Mendoza’s leverage and value at 1.1, narrowing scenarios where the top pick is anything but a quarterback.

3. Shifts tiers: Quarterback demand doesn’t change—supply does. That elevates second-tier passers into the late-first conversation and increases the premium on offensive tackles and edge defenders early.

Team storylines showing up repeatedly in today’s mocks

Las Vegas Raiders (No. 1): Quarterback remains the cleanest path. A trade-down stays possible if a multi-pick haul materializes, but the QB scarcity post-Moore makes standing pat more logical.

New York Jets (No. 2): With Moore out, the most common pivots are elite defender or cornerstone tackle. A developmental QB could still be added later if value meets need.

Dallas Cowboys (early teens): Several projections take an unexpected turn here—offensive skill help over defensive reinforcements—even though front-seven depth is a clear need. It’s a reminder that board strength, not just roster gaps, drives first-round choices.

Philadelphia Eagles (mid-late first): Wide receiver and defensive back show up as early priorities, with some seven-round exercises leaning into multiple pass-catchers to reset the room around their franchise QB.

Positional temperature check

• Quarterback: One clear QB1 (Mendoza), then volatility. Simpson and a small cluster of traits bets headline the next tier.

• Offensive tackle: A safer early-round harbor; Fano and company populate the 5–15 range across many boards.

• Edge/Hybrid LB: The modern “do-it-all” archetype is surging, with players like Reese fitting flexible fronts.

• Wide receiver: Depth is strong; WR2–WR6 is tightly bunched, creating value in the teens and 20s.

• Running back: Selective first-round paths exist for three-down creators, but most mocks keep the position for Day 2.

Early mock snapshot (subject to weekly movement)

1. Raiders — QB (Mendoza the leader today)

2. Jets — OT/EDGE (pivoting off QB after Moore’s return)
   3–10) A rotating mix of EDGE, OT, CB, and WR as team boards crystalize post–Senior/Underclass decisions

Expect the order and targets to keep tightening as postseason evaluations, pro declarations, and all-star circuits finalize. For now, the throughline is simple: with Dante Moore staying at Oregon, the 2026 NFL mock draft centers on Fernando Mendoza at the top and a scramble behind him for blue-chip trenches and hybrid defenders.

Note: This is a live snapshot reflecting updates within the past 24 hours. Details may evolve as declarations, medicals, and interviews are finalized.