Rockets vs. Mavericks Preview: Predictions, Key Injuries, Advantages, X-Factors
The Houston Rockets are set to host the Dallas Mavericks at the Toyota Center on Saturday, January 31, 2026, at 8:30 PM ET. The Rockets, currently holding a record of 29-17, occupy the fourth seed in the Western Conference standings, while the Mavericks sit at 19-29, positioned at 12th. The last encounter saw the Rockets triumph over the Atlanta Hawks with a score of 104-86, thanks largely to Kevin Durant’s impressive performance, scoring 31 points. Conversely, the Mavericks recently experienced a narrow loss to the Charlotte Hornets, finishing at 123-121, even with Cooper Flagg contributing a remarkable 49 points.
Rockets vs. Mavericks: Recent Performance and Matchup History
This upcoming game marks the final match in the season series between the two teams. They have already split the initial three games, with the Mavericks winning the last two meetings. This upcoming face-off serves as an opportunity for the Rockets to assert themselves at home and prove their mettle.
Key Player Statistics
- Rockets:
- Kevin Durant: 26.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists (51.4% FG, 40.8% 3PT)
- Alperen Sengun: 21.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists
- Mavericks:
- Cooper Flagg: 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists
- Naji Marshall: 14.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists (54.4% FG)
Injury Report
| Team | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Rockets | Fred VanVleet | Out (right knee ACL repair) |
| Rockets | Steven Adams | Out (left ankle surgery) |
| Mavericks | Anthony Davis | Out (left finger sprain) |
| Mavericks | Kyrie Irving | Out (left knee surgery) |
Game Advantages
Why the Rockets Hold the Upper Hand
The Rockets have the advantage on both ends of the court. They average 116.1 points per game while allowing only 110.5, highlighting their efficiency. With a shooting percentage of 47.5% from the field and 37.0% from three-point range, they are offensively formidable. Additionally, their rebounding statistics stand out at 49.2 boards per game, providing a strong inside presence.
Challenges for the Mavericks
The Mavericks have faced challenges due to their injuries. Key players, including Davis and Irving, will be absent, reducing their structural strength and rim protection. However, they have shown resilience in past matchups, even against stronger teams.
X-Factors to Watch
Amen Thompson is crucial for the Rockets’ success. Averaging 18.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, his ability to drive and create plays can elevate the team’s performance. Jabari Smith Jr. needs to step up as well, particularly in light of Adams’ absence.
For the Mavericks, P.J. Washington must provide significant defensive support. His experience and rim protection will be vital against the Rockets’ attacking strategy. Klay Thompson has the potential to contribute significantly if he finds his rhythm from beyond the arc, adding an unexpected threat to Dallas’ offense.
Final Prediction
While the Mavericks can compete effectively, the disparity created by injuries gives the Rockets a clear advantage. The prediction stands at Rockets 118, Mavericks 109, highlighting Houston’s stronger overall performance this season.
